Landmark Communications Releases Poll of Congressional District Seven

Republican Rob Woodall is leading Democrat Doug Heckman by a 60-30% margin

Landmark Communications conducted a poll of Congressional District Seven on October 25th, 2010. You can download the results at www.landmarkcommunications.net.

Voters were asked to self-identify their own likelihood for voting: only respondents who said they “definitely plan” to vote “somewhat likely to vote” are included in the final report, crosstabs and analysis. Voters who said they are “not likely to vote” or “definitely won’t vote” are excluded from all reports, crosstabs and analysis. Forty one percent of participants were African-American, which correctly reflects the likely turnout of this demographic on Election Day. Previous gubernatorial elections have resulted in turnout of 18% of the black vote. The margin of error was 3.0 %, with 1070 likely voters participating.

1. Republican Rob Woodall is leading Democrat Doug Heckman by a 60-30% margin.

2. Eight percent of white voters remain undecided, 17% of black voters are undecided, and 15% of ‘other race’ voters are undecided.

3. Assuming that 90%+ of the remaining undecided black vote goes to Heckman on Election Day, that Heckman carries 60% of the undecided voters who are of “other race”, and that Woodall carries 66% of the remaining undecided white vote (reasonable since he currently is carrying 75% of the “decided white vote”), Woodall will win the election by a 2-1 margin of about 65-35%.

4. Republican Rob Woodall is running stronger in the Seventh Congressional District than GOP gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal is running in the same district. Nathan Deal holds 55% of the overall vote vs. Woodall’s 60% of the vote.


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Landmark Communications Releases Poll of Eighth Congressional District of Georgia

Scott continues solid lead over Marshall

Republican challenger Austin Scott is leading over Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall by solid margins within Georgia Congressional District 8. Last night’s poll results show Marshall at 39.1 percent of the vote with Scott in the lead at 52.5 percent.

In 2006, the African American vote accounted for 25 percent of all voters in the district. For this poll, Landmark Communications raised that percentage to 26.5 in order to accommodate for demographic growth.

Currently 15 percent of African American voters say they are undecided in the election, as well as six percent of white voters. It is our projection that the black vote will return to historical levels of 95% support for a Democratic candidate, and that two-thirds of white undecideds will go to Austin Scott. Therefore, it is our projection that Scott will win by a margin of 9 to 10 points and carry around 55 percent of the vote on Election Day.

Landmark Communications polled 1,133 randomly selected active voters residing in Georgia Congressional District Eight. The poll was conducted Tuesday, October 26th, 2010. Only voters who said they would “definitely vote” or “likely vote” are included in the final analysis. Voters who did not identify themselves as “definitely” or “likely” to vote were not included in the final analysis. 25.8 percent of respondents were African American, corresponding with traditional voting participation in the district in gubernatorial election years. The margin of error of the survey is 3 percent.

You can download the results directly from landmarkcommunications.net.
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