Republican Rob Woodall is leading Democrat Doug Heckman by a 60-30% margin
Landmark Communications conducted a poll of Congressional District Seven on October 25th, 2010. You can download the results at www.landmarkcommunications.net.
Voters were asked to self-identify their own likelihood for voting: only respondents who said they “definitely plan” to vote “somewhat likely to vote” are included in the final report, crosstabs and analysis. Voters who said they are “not likely to vote” or “definitely won’t vote” are excluded from all reports, crosstabs and analysis. Forty one percent of participants were African-American, which correctly reflects the likely turnout of this demographic on Election Day. Previous gubernatorial elections have resulted in turnout of 18% of the black vote. The margin of error was 3.0 %, with 1070 likely voters participating.
1. Republican Rob Woodall is leading Democrat Doug Heckman by a 60-30% margin.
2. Eight percent of white voters remain undecided, 17% of black voters are undecided, and 15% of ‘other race’ voters are undecided.
3. Assuming that 90%+ of the remaining undecided black vote goes to Heckman on Election Day, that Heckman carries 60% of the undecided voters who are of “other race”, and that Woodall carries 66% of the remaining undecided white vote (reasonable since he currently is carrying 75% of the “decided white vote”), Woodall will win the election by a 2-1 margin of about 65-35%.
4. Republican Rob Woodall is running stronger in the Seventh Congressional District than GOP gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal is running in the same district. Nathan Deal holds 55% of the overall vote vs. Woodall’s 60% of the vote.
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Thursday, October 28, 2010
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