State Rep. Mike Keown (R) is challenging incumbent Congressman Sanford Bishop (D).
Landmark Communications' latest poll shows State Representative Mike Keown (R) is leading incumbent Congressman Sanford Bishop (D). You can also download the results at www.landmarkcommunications.net.
Voters were asked to self-identify their own likelihood for voting: only respondents who said they “definitely plan” to vote “somewhat likely to vote” are included in the final report, crosstabs and analysis. Voters who said they are “not likely to vote” or “definitely won’t vote” are excluded from all reports, crosstabs and analysis. Forty one percent of participants were African-American, which correctly reflects the likely turnout of this demographic on Election Day. Previous gubernatorial elections have resulted in turnout of 40% of the black vote. The margin of error was 3.25%, with 914 likely voters participating.
Perspective and Background -- Various national Republican candidates have performed well in this district despite its large African American population:
McCain carried 45% of the vote in the district in 2008; Bush carried 48% in 2004, and Bush carried 47% in 2000.
1. Challenger Mike Keown leads the race in the final week of the election. Keown leads Bishop by a 50% to 46% margin.
2. The district has a stronger than usual “decided” vote: only 3% of white voters and 6% of black voters say they are undecided.
3. Based on the numbers one week prior to the election: assuming 90%+ of the remaining undecided black vote goes to Bishop on Election Day, and assuming that Keown carries 70% of the remaining undecided white vote, Keown would win the election by 51-49%.
4. What has changed for Bishop is the total collapse of his white vote: only 15% of white voters say they will vote for Bishop, while 82% say they will vote for Keown.
5. THE AGE DIVIDE: Keown leads by a large margin with voters over the age of 50, while Bishop leads with those under age 50.
6. BY GENDER: Men are voting for Keown by more than a 20 point margin: 59% for Keown and 39% for Bishop. Women lean to Bishop over Keown by a 52%-44% margin.
It is premature to say that Keown will win this election. However, as of the date that this poll was conducted (October 26th 2010) -- one week before Election Day -- it is clear that Keown has gained traction and has developed a slight lead.
If Bishop does not successfully turn around white voters who are supporting Keown in the closing days of the election, there may very well be an upset victory for Keown.