Landmark Communications Releases Poll of Congressional District Two

State Rep. Mike Keown (R) is challenging incumbent Congressman Sanford Bishop (D).

Landmark Communications' latest poll shows State Representative Mike Keown (R) is leading incumbent Congressman Sanford Bishop (D). You can also download the results at www.landmarkcommunications.net.

Voters were asked to self-identify their own likelihood for voting: only respondents who said they “definitely plan” to vote “somewhat likely to vote” are included in the final report, crosstabs and analysis. Voters who said they are “not likely to vote” or “definitely won’t vote” are excluded from all reports, crosstabs and analysis. Forty one percent of participants were African-American, which correctly reflects the likely turnout of this demographic on Election Day. Previous gubernatorial elections have resulted in turnout of 40% of the black vote. The margin of error was 3.25%, with 914 likely voters participating.

Perspective and Background -- Various national Republican candidates have performed well in this district despite its large African American population:

McCain carried 45% of the vote in the district in 2008; Bush carried 48% in 2004, and Bush carried 47% in 2000.

1. Challenger Mike Keown leads the race in the final week of the election. Keown leads Bishop by a 50% to 46% margin.

2. The district has a stronger than usual “decided” vote: only 3% of white voters and 6% of black voters say they are undecided.

3. Based on the numbers one week prior to the election: assuming 90%+ of the remaining undecided black vote goes to Bishop on Election Day, and assuming that Keown carries 70% of the remaining undecided white vote, Keown would win the election by 51-49%.

4. What has changed for Bishop is the total collapse of his white vote: only 15% of white voters say they will vote for Bishop, while 82% say they will vote for Keown.

5. THE AGE DIVIDE: Keown leads by a large margin with voters over the age of 50, while Bishop leads with those under age 50.

6. BY GENDER: Men are voting for Keown by more than a 20 point margin: 59% for Keown and 39% for Bishop. Women lean to Bishop over Keown by a 52%-44% margin.

CONCLUSION

It is premature to say that Keown will win this election. However, as of the date that this poll was conducted (October 26th 2010) -- one week before Election Day -- it is clear that Keown has gained traction and has developed a slight lead.

If Bishop does not successfully turn around white voters who are supporting Keown in the closing days of the election, there may very well be an upset victory for Keown.

Landmark Communications Releases Poll of Congressional District Seven

Republican Rob Woodall is leading Democrat Doug Heckman by a 60-30% margin

Landmark Communications conducted a poll of Congressional District Seven on October 25th, 2010. You can download the results at www.landmarkcommunications.net.

Voters were asked to self-identify their own likelihood for voting: only respondents who said they “definitely plan” to vote “somewhat likely to vote” are included in the final report, crosstabs and analysis. Voters who said they are “not likely to vote” or “definitely won’t vote” are excluded from all reports, crosstabs and analysis. Forty one percent of participants were African-American, which correctly reflects the likely turnout of this demographic on Election Day. Previous gubernatorial elections have resulted in turnout of 18% of the black vote. The margin of error was 3.0 %, with 1070 likely voters participating.

1. Republican Rob Woodall is leading Democrat Doug Heckman by a 60-30% margin.

2. Eight percent of white voters remain undecided, 17% of black voters are undecided, and 15% of ‘other race’ voters are undecided.

3. Assuming that 90%+ of the remaining undecided black vote goes to Heckman on Election Day, that Heckman carries 60% of the undecided voters who are of “other race”, and that Woodall carries 66% of the remaining undecided white vote (reasonable since he currently is carrying 75% of the “decided white vote”), Woodall will win the election by a 2-1 margin of about 65-35%.

4. Republican Rob Woodall is running stronger in the Seventh Congressional District than GOP gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal is running in the same district. Nathan Deal holds 55% of the overall vote vs. Woodall’s 60% of the vote.


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Landmark Communications Releases Poll of Eighth Congressional District of Georgia

Scott continues solid lead over Marshall

Republican challenger Austin Scott is leading over Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall by solid margins within Georgia Congressional District 8. Last night’s poll results show Marshall at 39.1 percent of the vote with Scott in the lead at 52.5 percent.

In 2006, the African American vote accounted for 25 percent of all voters in the district. For this poll, Landmark Communications raised that percentage to 26.5 in order to accommodate for demographic growth.

Currently 15 percent of African American voters say they are undecided in the election, as well as six percent of white voters. It is our projection that the black vote will return to historical levels of 95% support for a Democratic candidate, and that two-thirds of white undecideds will go to Austin Scott. Therefore, it is our projection that Scott will win by a margin of 9 to 10 points and carry around 55 percent of the vote on Election Day.

Landmark Communications polled 1,133 randomly selected active voters residing in Georgia Congressional District Eight. The poll was conducted Tuesday, October 26th, 2010. Only voters who said they would “definitely vote” or “likely vote” are included in the final analysis. Voters who did not identify themselves as “definitely” or “likely” to vote were not included in the final analysis. 25.8 percent of respondents were African American, corresponding with traditional voting participation in the district in gubernatorial election years. The margin of error of the survey is 3 percent.

You can download the results directly from landmarkcommunications.net.
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National FOP Throws Financial Support Behind Carter to Represent Georgia 4th U.S. Congressional District

Through its political action committee in Washington, D.C., the National Fraternal Order of Police is donating $1,000 to business owner Liz Carter to represent Georgia's 4th Congressional District.

William E. Peacock, Jr. Lodge #10, representing law enforcement officers in DeKalb County, already had voted to endorse Carter in her race against incumbent candidate Hank Johnson.

Members of the local lodge will present the donation to Carter on behalf of the national membership at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 13, at the DeKalb Fraternal Order of Police Lodge, 1238 Ridge Ave., Stone Mountain, Ga., 30083. Georgia President of the Fraternal Order of Police Carlton Stallings and State Trustee W.E. "Billy" Peacock will be also be in attendance. The public and press are invited to attend.

The national organization regularly backs candidates who focus on public safety issues, according to National FOP President Chuck Canterbury. "The FOP exists to support law enforcement officers across the country," he said. "That responsibility includes working to ensure officers' needs and concerns are a priority to local, state and national officials. Johnson's public safety record is unsatisfactory, and Carter should be a refreshing change."

Carter considers public safety an issue of national security - one of her key concerns. "Our sheriff, police and fire departments are our first responders and should be treated with the respect we give our troops," she said. "These men and women serve our country and are part of our national security infrastructure. With the issues that face our great nation, we cannot afford to cut public safety jobs."

Carter, a job creator who focuses on delivering best practices and thought leadership, has 20 years of business experience. She's been noted for managing multi-million dollar business units, effectively cutting costs and increasing revenues - skills she intends to leverage in Congress.

Prior to owning her own consulting firm, she held executive-level marketing and business management positions at high technology and financial companies. Carter began her career in land development and transitioned into the world of technology at Novell before continuing in leadership positions at State Street Corporation, Sitara Networks and CheckFree Corporation.