Landmark Communications Releases Poll of Congressional District Two

State Rep. Mike Keown (R) is challenging incumbent Congressman Sanford Bishop (D).

Landmark Communications' latest poll shows State Representative Mike Keown (R) is leading incumbent Congressman Sanford Bishop (D). You can also download the results at www.landmarkcommunications.net.

Voters were asked to self-identify their own likelihood for voting: only respondents who said they “definitely plan” to vote “somewhat likely to vote” are included in the final report, crosstabs and analysis. Voters who said they are “not likely to vote” or “definitely won’t vote” are excluded from all reports, crosstabs and analysis. Forty one percent of participants were African-American, which correctly reflects the likely turnout of this demographic on Election Day. Previous gubernatorial elections have resulted in turnout of 40% of the black vote. The margin of error was 3.25%, with 914 likely voters participating.

Perspective and Background -- Various national Republican candidates have performed well in this district despite its large African American population:

McCain carried 45% of the vote in the district in 2008; Bush carried 48% in 2004, and Bush carried 47% in 2000.

1. Challenger Mike Keown leads the race in the final week of the election. Keown leads Bishop by a 50% to 46% margin.

2. The district has a stronger than usual “decided” vote: only 3% of white voters and 6% of black voters say they are undecided.

3. Based on the numbers one week prior to the election: assuming 90%+ of the remaining undecided black vote goes to Bishop on Election Day, and assuming that Keown carries 70% of the remaining undecided white vote, Keown would win the election by 51-49%.

4. What has changed for Bishop is the total collapse of his white vote: only 15% of white voters say they will vote for Bishop, while 82% say they will vote for Keown.

5. THE AGE DIVIDE: Keown leads by a large margin with voters over the age of 50, while Bishop leads with those under age 50.

6. BY GENDER: Men are voting for Keown by more than a 20 point margin: 59% for Keown and 39% for Bishop. Women lean to Bishop over Keown by a 52%-44% margin.

CONCLUSION

It is premature to say that Keown will win this election. However, as of the date that this poll was conducted (October 26th 2010) -- one week before Election Day -- it is clear that Keown has gained traction and has developed a slight lead.

If Bishop does not successfully turn around white voters who are supporting Keown in the closing days of the election, there may very well be an upset victory for Keown.

Landmark Communications Releases Poll of Congressional District Seven

Republican Rob Woodall is leading Democrat Doug Heckman by a 60-30% margin

Landmark Communications conducted a poll of Congressional District Seven on October 25th, 2010. You can download the results at www.landmarkcommunications.net.

Voters were asked to self-identify their own likelihood for voting: only respondents who said they “definitely plan” to vote “somewhat likely to vote” are included in the final report, crosstabs and analysis. Voters who said they are “not likely to vote” or “definitely won’t vote” are excluded from all reports, crosstabs and analysis. Forty one percent of participants were African-American, which correctly reflects the likely turnout of this demographic on Election Day. Previous gubernatorial elections have resulted in turnout of 18% of the black vote. The margin of error was 3.0 %, with 1070 likely voters participating.

1. Republican Rob Woodall is leading Democrat Doug Heckman by a 60-30% margin.

2. Eight percent of white voters remain undecided, 17% of black voters are undecided, and 15% of ‘other race’ voters are undecided.

3. Assuming that 90%+ of the remaining undecided black vote goes to Heckman on Election Day, that Heckman carries 60% of the undecided voters who are of “other race”, and that Woodall carries 66% of the remaining undecided white vote (reasonable since he currently is carrying 75% of the “decided white vote”), Woodall will win the election by a 2-1 margin of about 65-35%.

4. Republican Rob Woodall is running stronger in the Seventh Congressional District than GOP gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal is running in the same district. Nathan Deal holds 55% of the overall vote vs. Woodall’s 60% of the vote.


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Landmark Communications Releases Poll of Eighth Congressional District of Georgia

Scott continues solid lead over Marshall

Republican challenger Austin Scott is leading over Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall by solid margins within Georgia Congressional District 8. Last night’s poll results show Marshall at 39.1 percent of the vote with Scott in the lead at 52.5 percent.

In 2006, the African American vote accounted for 25 percent of all voters in the district. For this poll, Landmark Communications raised that percentage to 26.5 in order to accommodate for demographic growth.

Currently 15 percent of African American voters say they are undecided in the election, as well as six percent of white voters. It is our projection that the black vote will return to historical levels of 95% support for a Democratic candidate, and that two-thirds of white undecideds will go to Austin Scott. Therefore, it is our projection that Scott will win by a margin of 9 to 10 points and carry around 55 percent of the vote on Election Day.

Landmark Communications polled 1,133 randomly selected active voters residing in Georgia Congressional District Eight. The poll was conducted Tuesday, October 26th, 2010. Only voters who said they would “definitely vote” or “likely vote” are included in the final analysis. Voters who did not identify themselves as “definitely” or “likely” to vote were not included in the final analysis. 25.8 percent of respondents were African American, corresponding with traditional voting participation in the district in gubernatorial election years. The margin of error of the survey is 3 percent.

You can download the results directly from landmarkcommunications.net.
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Landmark Communications Poll Release, Top GA Races

Deal leads Barnes 49-42% heading into final days
Attorney General: Olens (R) leads Hodges (D) 47-40%
School Superintendent: Barge (R) leads Martin (D) 48-36%

Despite a slight tightening in the race for governor, Republican Nathan Deal continues to lead Democrat Roy Barnes by 49 to 42 percent. Libertarian John Monds carries 4 percent.

“Nothing has effectively changed since we last conducted a statewide survey a week ago,” said Mark Rountree, President of Landmark Communications. “Barnes’ support has increased slightly as traditional voting groups solidify. But Deal’s numbers have not moved much. The attacks on him by Barnes are not working at this point.”

FIRST BALLOT TEST ON A POTENTIAL RUNOFF VOTE: Landmark asked voters how they would vote between Deal and Barnes in the event of a runoff election. 51 percent of voters chose Deal and 43 percent chose Barnes – an 8-point margin.

Rountree said, “Libertarians decidedly come down on the side of Deal. Third party voters say they would support Deal over Barnes by a 3 to 1 margin."

In the race for Attorney General, Republican Sam Olens leads Democrat Ken Hodges by 47 to 40 percent.

In the race for School Superintendent, Republican John Barge leads Democrat Joe Martin by 48 to 36 percent.

Landmark Communications polled 1,686 randomly selected active voters on Tuesday, October 26. Only voters who said they would “definitely vote” or “likely vote” are included in the final analysis. Voters who did not identify themselves as “definitely” or “likely” to vote were not included in the final analysis. 25.8 percent of respondents were African American, a traditional number for gubernatorial year elections in Georgia. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.4 percent.

You can download the results directly from landmarkcommunications.net.
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